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martedì 17 aprile 2018

British Pound To US Dollar Exchange Rate Trends Near Highs Despite Slightly Underwhelming UK Pay Data

British Pound To US Dollar Exchange Rate Trends Near Highs Despite Slightly Underwhelming UK Pay Data
GBPUSD
Firming Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets and broad US Dollar weakness have made it easier for the British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate to trend near its best levels this week, despite Tuesday’s UK job market stats being slightly underwhelming for investors.
Following relatively solid gains from 1.4087 to 1.4237 last week, GBP/USD has already seen further gains since markets opened on Monday. On Tuesday morning, GBP/USD touched on a high of 1.4373, the pair’s best level since the 2016 Brexit vote, before slipping slightly.
Pound (GBP) Strength Limited on Mixed UK Job Market Report
Tuesday’s UK job market results were largely optimistic and had little impact on market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) was preparing to hike UK interest rates in May.
However, some of the prints caused some uncertainty in markets that limited the Pound’s strength on Tuesday.
Britain’s employment change came in at a higher than expected 55k, while the key unemployment rate unexpectedly improved from 4.3% to 4.2%.
However, this did not translate into a stronger wage growth rate, causing concern that rising wages was more to do with shifts in UK inflation than strength in the labour market.
Wage growth was forecast to rise from 2.6% to 2.8% excluding bonuses and did as forecast. However, the print including bonuses was forecast to reach 3% but instead remained at 2.8%.
Some analysts remained split on how certain an interest rate hike from the BoE was, amid this underwhelming wage growth data.
According to Samuel Tombs from Pantheon Macroeconomics;
‘Latest UK wage data place little pressure on the MPC to hike next month. Year-over-year growth in wages is rising only due to extreme weakness in early 2017. Note the 3m/3m annualised growth in private sector wages slowed to a 10-month low in February’
However, Ben Brettell from Hargreaves Lansdown on the other hand believes that a May interest rate hike from the BoE is a ‘near-certainty’ at this point.
‘with inflation currently running at 2.7%, and expected to fall towards 2% this year, it looks certain we’ll see real wages start to grow again in the coming months.
"The figures reinforce expectations the Bank of England will lift interest rates at its May policy meeting. Markets are now pricing in an 85% chance of a rate rise.’
US Dollar (USD) Finds Little Support in Data as Trade and Political Jitters Weigh
The US Dollar’s broad weak streak has continued in recent sessions and has been little affected by decent US data, despite speculation that the Federal Reserve may up the pace of its planned US interest rate hikes over the next year.

Monday’s American session saw the publication of March’s US retail sales results, which beat expectations. Month-on-month retail sales rose from -0.1% to 0.6%, beating the forecast 0.4%. Yearly retail sales climbed from 4.1% to 4.5%.
Concerns about the increasingly firm protectionist stance of US President Trump and how it may impact the US economy have been a persistent downside risk in USD trade though, keeping the currency unappealing.

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GBP/USD Forecast: UK Inflation Report Could be Final Obstacle for BoE Bets
With the US economic calendar looking relatively quiet for the rest of the week, the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to be driven by UK data and central bank speculation in the coming sessions.
Wednesday will see the publication of Britain’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) results, which are being perceived as the last potential obstacle for Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets.
If the UK inflation figure meets or beats expectations, BoE interest rate hike bets are likely to firm and the Pound could continue to trend near the year’s best levels against the US Dollar.
The opposite is also true though. If UK inflation comes in much worse than expected investors will become anxious that UK inflation is not sustainable, which could cause BoE bets to fall and the Pound to weaken notably.
While Wednesday’s UK data is most likely to impact BoE interest rate hike bets, Thursday’s UK retail sales could influence Sterling too.
As for the US Dollar, it is likely to be influenced by any developments in Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets.
Multiple Fed officials will hold speeches later in the week, which could drive GBP/USD exchange rate movement if the Fed stance is perceived to be shifting at all.
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